Raising the bar on India-Myanmar ties

India and Myanmar are showing definite signs of cosying up to each other with external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj ending a four-day visit to Nay Pyi Taw, describing the engagements as “very successful.” Apart from participating at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting, ASEAN Regional Forum Meeting and the East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, her packed schedule included bilateral discussions with Myanmar’s president Thein Sein and foreign minister U Wunna Maung Lwin. That the new BJP-led government in New Delhi has generated considerable interest among the Myanmar leadership, is indicated by the speed with which they extended an invitation to Prime Minister Modi to engage in a bilateral dialogue during his visit to the country on November 13 for the East Asia Summit.

Predictably, Swaraj raised the issue of several North East Indian insurgent groups operating from bases inside Myanmar, drawing an expected response from President Thein Sein that his country “will never allow its territory to be used for anything that is inimical to India’s interests.” New Delhi, this time round, stressed on the need to actually operationalise the MoU signed in March between the two nations on intelligence-sharing and cooperation between security forces. Both India and Myanmar emphasised on the need to improve connectivity, and in this backdrop, the issue of security has assumed added importance.

That India is conscious of the fact that China is fully entrenched in Myanmar was indicated by the discussion on setting up of a Joint Consultative Committee to explore new areas of cooperation. Swaraj went to the extent of suggesting that chief ministers of states bordering Myanmar participate in the JCC besides union ministers. Issues relating to boosting trade, border cooperation and infrastructure development also figured in the talks. The two countries share a 1,643 km long border, and it is only expected that engagements increase and business and investments grow beyond the meagre border trade through designated points along North East India. In March, India made headway in bagging a contract for exploring two hydrocarbon blocks. While Reliance was one of the successful bidders, the other block was bagged by a consortium of Oil India Ltd, Mercator Petroleum and Oilmax Energy. An India-assisted port-cum-waterway project of Rs 350-crore is nearing completion. This project involves building the Sittwe Port and a jetty at Paletwa, a town in west Myanmar, located about 18 kilometres from Bangladesh. It will provide a water link to ship goods from the Kolkata port to Mizoram, via Sittwe port, bypassing Bangladesh.

India has to look beyond China if it truly wants to consolidate its ties with Myanmar. That is to say, the core of New Delhi’s Myanmar policy cannot involve merely responding to what Beijing is doing in that country. It must also be noted that Myanmar could actually be against becoming a strategic pawn of China. As way back as August 2001, in what is regarded as a counter-hedging strategy, Myanmar decided to purchase 12 MIG-29 fighters from Russia, spending up to $150 million. By the late 1990s, it had made its diplomacy broad-based, welcoming India, consolidating ties with ASEAN, and facilitating Japan, EU and Singapore, among others, to invest in Myanmar. New Delhi has an edge insofar as historical ties between the two nations are concerned. During the Fifth India-Myanmar Regional Border Committee Meeting in Imphal held in the last week of July 2014, the leader of the delegation from Myanmar, Major General Min Nuang stated “We share a long common border and have close affinity with your historical, cultural and religious background. We always think of India as a true friend.”

Sushma Swaraj’s visit to Myanmar comes at a time when there is growing resistance in that country to Chinese-funded projects by non-government actors. A case in point is the cancellation of a $20 billion railway line connecting Kyaukpyu in Myanmar and Kunming in China due to public opposition. The construction was to have been carried out by the China Railway Engineering Corporation. This is a situation that New Delhi is expected to capitalise on, and therefore during Prime Minister Modi’s visit in November, he is expected to offer easy credit facility to Myanmar besides useful joint venture proposals. Bilateral trade has grown from $12.4 million in 1980-81 to $2.18 billion in 2013-14, but some estimates say there is potential for this to touch the $8 billion mark.

Myanmar is more than just a gateway to the ASEAN. It is critical to the furtherance of India’s Look East Policy. Swaraj knows well that to push ahead the Look East Policy by opening and putting in place modes of communication by roads and railway, the India-Myanmar region must be free of violent insurgencies. That explains her emphasis on the need to deny shelter to North East Indian insurgents in Myanmar. One now awaits Prime Minister Modi’s visit to see if India can consolidate ties with a nation that has just begun taking baby steps to democracy.

Wasbir Hussain is the executive director of the Centre for Development and Peace Studies, Guwahati. A two-time former Member of India’s National Security Advisory Board, he writes on peace, security and development issues relating to India’s Northeast and her neighbourhood.

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