The rapidly changing events in the Middle East are forcing nations around the world to react fast, without turning their backs on past regimes but compelled to prepare quickly for the geopolitical environments of the future. Nowhere is this more urgent than in the oil-producing nations, which, while as yet unimpacted by the events of Egypt and Tunisia, are nevertheless on the edges of a transformation whose contours are unclear. Saudi Arabia, the key oil-producer in the world, is facing stark issues of governance and domestic unhappiness with its autocratic dynastic rule. Should the contagion of Egypt’s uprising spread to Saudi Arabia, it could destabilize the country’s single-product economy with disturbing consequences for the global economy.
For India, this is an acute and urgent issue. India depends on fuel to fire its 8% growth, and imports over 70% of its oil, mostly from the Middle East which is now a tinderbox. The sea routes that transport oil from West Asia to South and East Asia, pass through the Indian Ocean, now an open sea for pirates and geopolitical adventures for nations seeking dominance. Ensuring energy security has become India’s preeminent strategic priority. In this meeting, Indian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Talmiz Ahmad discussed the changing geopolitics of oil – the impact of the Egypt and Tunisian uprisings on Saudi Arabia, the choices facing the fastest growing global consumers India and China, the role of emerging oil producers such as Brazil and Canada, and the implications of the search for alternative energy sources.
How will India and China now secure their energy supplies? How important a role in will the new oil producing nations play? What role can Indian business play in securing India’s relationship with oil-producing nations? How will the ongoing instability in the Middle East affect international global oil prices?