India’s ambitious growth agenda in 2015 will be influenced by two pressing developments – (a) China’s economic slowdown (b) instability in South Asia. If instability persists in South Asia in 2015, two scenarios are likely:
1. An unstable South Asia will intersect with China’s orderly slowdown: This scenario will strengthen China’s authority in new institutions, even as it increases its influence in the existing world order. China will be on course for parity with the U.S., resulting in a G2.
2. An unstable South Asia will intersect with China’s disorderly slowdown: This scenario will lead to the U.S. consolidating its power and retaining dominance. The Voice of America will be gospel.
Which scenario will prevail in 2015?
The Debating and Literary Society, Government Law College, Mumbai in collaboration with Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations held a debate to discuss the possible near-future scenarios.
Neelam Deo, Director at Gateway House argued in support of G2, and K. N. Vaidyanathan, Senior Fellow, Geoeconomics at Gateway House, argued in support of Voice of America. The discussion was moderated by Akshay Mathur, Head of research, Gateway House.
A distinguished diplomat, Neelam has been the Indian ambassador to Denmark and Ivory Coast with concurrent accreditation to several West African countries. She has also served in Indian embassies in Washington D.C., Bangkok and Rome. Her last assignment was as consul general in New York. During her assignments in the Ministry of External Affairs, she was Joint Secretary for Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and the Maldives. At different times she has been on the desk for South East Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East and North Africa and Bhutan.
K. N. ‘Vaidy’ Vaidyanathan is the Chief Risk Officer of the Mahindra Group. Prior to this, he was the Executive Director at SEBI in charge of institutional investors portfolio, including domestic (MF) and foreign (FII). Vaidy has over 25 years experience in financial services, primarily in the realm of asset management. He is an MBA from the Indian Institute of Management (IIM), Ahmedabad.
Akshay Mathur worked with Fidelity Investments in Boston for over seven years as a Principal Architect in the Strategy and Architecture group of the multi-billion dollar Institutional and Retail Brokerage division where he was an expert in Research and Strategy Formulation. He has an MBA (Honours) from Boston University with concentration in Finance and Business Analysis and research focused on Global Business and Global Macro Economics.