The Quad summit is expected to be hosted by India in the second half of 2025, possibly in November. However, the grouping faces turbulence that transcends the current flow of India-U.S. relations. The relevance of Australia and Japan, too, needs to be factored in. Beijing considers the Quad as “the Asian NATO” that aims to contain China. Since the commencement of Trump 2.0, the grouping has been struggling to redefine its role and mandate.

The first plurilateral meeting attended by new U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was the Quad, a day after assuming office. The meeting reinforced the commitment to the Indo-Pacific but with the change in government, the Quad's trajectory in 2025 remains a question. Part of the answer lies in its past interactions, while the rest depends on how the U.S. and India will approach China.

The Quad foreign ministers meeting, held in Tokyo on July 29, took a clear position against China’s coercive actions in the East and South China seas. The four ministers have done their bit by reviewing the progress of the grouping’s many initiatives and reiterating its commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. For continued progress, the Quad now needs solid initiative from the top leadership – and a summit at the earliest.

China has established a dominant presence in the Indo-Pacific through exploitative economic engagements. This has destabilised smaller nations in the region and made them dependent on Chinese support. For a free and open Indo-Pacific, India must press its advantage in human and economic capacity building.

The Sino-U.S. contestation is a central tenet of the Indo-Pacific. In this power tussle, the EU strategy for the region provides a new way to engage with partners in the "Third Space" for a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific.

Three senior U.S. officials visited Asia in July in a well-choreographed diplomatic outreach strategy by the Biden administration. The U.S is willing to prioritise the Indo-Pacific and counter China. Asia cannot afford to be a reticent bystander.