- Gateway House - https://www.gatewayhouse.in -

‘When the UNSC is enlarged, India will be one of the countries joining… with America’s support.’

There are high expectations from the visit to India of U.S. President Barack Obama. There have been concerns in India that President Obama is not as engaged with India as his predecessor George W Bush was, an impression that the administration has been working to correct. It is being pointed out that this is longest visit to any country since taking over as President. Yet, New Delhi is keen to see what Obama has in mind.

They want to know his views on Kashmir, on Pakistan and most crucially, on economic issues. As part of our series of articles on Obama’s Indian Odyssey, which begins on November 5, we spoke to Dr. James Lindsay, Director of Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

1. Since the conclusion of the Joint Counterterrorism Initiative in November 2009, Indian analysts have proclaimed that there had been a “paucity of ideas” in the Indo-U.S. relationship – What agreements on economic ties and security cooperation are likely to be reached when President Obama calls on Prime Minster Singh?

Let’s begin with the premise, that right now, we don’t have big ideas for the future of the U.S.-India relationship. I know that back in Washington, the Obama administration is looking for ways to both broaden and deepen U.S. relations with India. Part of what the president will try to accomplish with his visit in November is to hear more from the prime minister and other Indians about their hopes and expectations for U.S.-India relations.  There will be a small number of agreements in these diplomatic engagements but I think we should not look at the November Obama visit as the end of discussion but as the beginning. It is a very positive sign that earlier this year we had the U.S.-India Strategic Dialogue and what we need to be doing with these two countries is not only talking about bilateral issues but also talking about broader issues in global politics where there is a potential for us to forge a cooperation over narrow differences.

2. The strategic importance of the Indo-U.S. relationship dialogue seems to be eroded by issues like the visa fees and outsourcing. What do you think are the long-term implications of the current irritants in the bilateral relationship? Do issues and regulations such as higher visa fees and outsourcing bans eventually harm profitability of American businesses?

Small problems can always overwhelm big ideas. The task of statesman is to ensure that that doesn’t happen. When President Obama sits down with Prime Minister Singh, they and their staff will talk about a lot of these issues which are significant politically to various constituencies but shouldn’t be allowed to define the overall relationship and on some of these issues, we will find ways to narrow the differences while on other ones, we won’t be able to. But I think the test for Mr. Obama and Mr. Singh is to make sure that six to twelve months from now, the defining issue in this relationship is not visa fees. Hopefully what will happen in this broadening and deepening of relations is how we can deepen our economic exchange. Today the United States has become a large market for Indian exports and India has an amazing output information and technology. The U.S. and India will be able to coordinate policies on global issues like trade, terrorism, nuclear non proliferation.

3. What is the next big opportunity in business cooperation post the outsourcing era: Clean Energy?

Clean energy is one of the big opportunities for the United States and India. From the U.S. vantage point, clean energy offers the opportunity to empower new industries i.e. jobs, reduce your dependence on imported il which counts for a large part of the U.S. trade deficit, for India, clean energy allows India to broaden its already large technological capacity. India has some of the greatest schools of science and engineering. On the heels of that could come foreign investment which also means jobs and opportunities for Indians too. Also for India, a very large section of India’s population is off the grid in some sense –some don’t have access to electricity and finding low cost ways of clean energy are opportunities that will advance India’s substantial economic growth.  Just imagine, if you can succeed in developing technologies for rural Indian villages to improve productivity and educational opportunities. To do so inexpensively and cleanly, that is a revolution.

4. A major impediment to the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal has been the denial of dual-use technology to several Indian companies like Indian Space Research Organisation and Defence Research and Development Organisation as a way of preventing nuclear proliferation. What is the likelihood that this issue will be addressed?  Would revoking this ban be a game changer for the enhancement of bilateral defence and economic ties?

The U.S. is reviewing its export controls which were written in a different time. Technology and the global environment have changed since then. I would imagine over time that we will see an evolution of these rules too. I believe that this will be a topic which President Obama will indeed discuss with [India’s] prime minister. I don’t know if there will be a new accord in November. But on the American side, there is a realization that the nature of U.S.-India relations requires the changing of these rules. These technology policies will evolve over time.

5. Indians expect the Obama administration to support India’s bid for a permanent seat at the United Nations Security Council. Will Obama disappoint India?

I have no way of knowing if President Obama is going to come to India and say ‘I support India’s ascension to the UNSC.’ It is the notion in the United States that India belongs on the Security Council. It has widespread appeal. Yes. Why is that? India has more than one billion people. It seems something’s amiss when the UNSC is missing one of the most populous countries on the planet. Whatever differences India has had with the United States historically, India is a democracy that accounts for a very, very big deal in the U.S.. The Council on Foreign Relations is releasing a report in November 2010 on the issue of enlargement the UN Security Council.  We urge the administration to move this up the ladder of Presidential attention. When the UNSC is enlarged, India will be one of the countries joining and they will do so with America’s support. India’s problem is not in Washington, it is in Beijing and Islamabad. The Chinese have not been eager to add India to the UNSC. Pakistan will do whatever it can because of the nature of rivalry between the two coun

6. America’s attention is focused on the the western parts of Asia. If you look east, China is emerging at a rapid pace– in that perspective how could India and the U.S. collaborate?

U.S.-lndia forces are concentrated right now in Afghanistan and Iraq. But the U.S. has a very substantial naval presence in East Asia in the Pacific. The obvious place to cooperate is on navigation and the freedom of the seas. I don’t think it is in India’s or the United States’ interests to make everything in opposition to China. There are a variety of threats in which U.S.-Indian cooperation can be pivotal that don’t involve China. How do you deepen cooperation? A variety of ways, you have more joint military exercise, defence production side and the sharing of technology.

7. On the eve of the strategic dialogue, the NATO airstrike has soured relations and Islamabad has been complaining of insufficient aid. Another potential bone of contention is President Obama’s objective to end the production of new nuclear fuel.  Will these issues affect U.S.-Pak partnership in Afghanistan vis-à-vis Sino-Pakistan relations?

We have a contentious relationship with Pakistan. There are issues where we think we have shared interest with parts of the Pakistani government. There are clearly other issues where we have opposing interests which is why U.S. policy towards Pakistan seems to change colours. One way we are applauding the Pakistanis for standing up for the right thing and the next day chastising the Pakistanis because they aided bad forces. Pakistan is a complex society.  The U.S. government will not rethink its policy because of the fear that if you get Pakistan wrong you will end up with the worst outcome.

8. With the upcoming mid-term elections and possible shifting of power in the house and senate- will the U.S. Foreign policy towards India change? Traditionally, Indo-U.S. relations have prospered whenever a GOP candidate has been in the Oval office.

No, India will be popular in the U.S. Congress regardless of who will come to power. Why?  India is a democracy. Indian Americans are one of the most affluent ethnic groups in the country and they have the habit of calling up elected representatives and saying ‘I like India, do you like India?’ And members of Congress can find very few reasons to say why they don’t like India. And I don’t think anything is going to change that.

Dr. James Lindsay, Director of Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations

This interview was exclusively conducted for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations. You can read more exclusive content here.

For permission to republish, please contact outreach@gatewayhouse.in.

© Copyright 2010 Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations. All rights reserved. Any unauthorized copying or reproduction is strictly prohibited