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Macron, Modi, Lula: the emerging troika

The rare image of Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and French President Emmanuel Macron sitting together at the inauguration of the AI Impact Summit in Delhi on February 20, revealed an emerging synthesis of perspectives across political aisles and geographies. Two belong to the Global South, and one to the Western alliance. They also represent the three largest democracies in Latin America, Asia, and Europe. The two foreign leaders stood out among the representatives of 118 nations present at the New Delhi summit; they were the only heads of state and government invited to pay an official or state visit to India last week, with Modi as the common host. Lula and Macron may also have had opportunities for bilateral interaction. This troika will meet again soon, as Macron has invited both Lula and Modi to the next G7 summit, to be hosted by France in May.

Leaders work well on regional and global issues when bilateral relations between their countries are on an ascendant path. This is true of each set of the three bilateral relationships in this case. For example, the Franco-Brazil equation is a strategic partnership established in 2006. It suffered setbacks under Jair Bolsonaro, the previous Brazilian president, but Lula’s return to power in 2023 brought about a reset. They are on a path of revitalised relations, which some in the media characterise as a ‘bromance’. The March 2024 announcement by the two leaders of a $1.1 billion investment plan to protect the Amazon rainforest was a landmark. It helps that Brazil hosts the largest network of Alliance Française branches. France is a major investor, with over 1,100 corporate subsidiaries in Brazil.

As to the other two relationships – India-France and India-Brazil – the past week witnessed momentous developments that warrant attention.

President Macron’s official visit from February 17–19, began in Mumbai and concluded in Delhi, drawing immense attention from the corporate and social sectors, media, and government leaders. His interaction with Bollywood celebrities and decision to go jogging on Mumbai’s streets turned him into a star attraction. Host India was much pleased with the visit: it outlined 21 outcomes, including an annual dialogue of foreign ministers to review progress towards the Horizon 2047[1] celebrating 100 years of the bilateral, the launch of the India-France Year of Innovation, and a protocol on double tax avoidance.[2] This is helpful for individuals and also for the presence of companies on each other’s soil: 700 French companies in India and 150 Indian companies in France.

Most importantly, the two governments decided to upgrade the India-France relationship to the ‘Special Global Strategic Partnership’.[3] It signified that, working from a shared vision, the two nations see their relationship as a global good that will bring prosperity and resilience to their economies, strengthen their cooperation in addressing global challenges, and stand by “a stable rules-based international order.”[4]

Unlike other nations’ top political leaders – Russia, for example – French leaders never hesitate to talk about and push their products, especially defence equipment. Macron candidly and unabashedly made the case for greater sales of Rafale fighter jets, H125 helicopters, Hammer missiles, and Scorpene-class submarines. India’s confirmation of an order of 114 Rafale planes with co-production meant the two countries were entering “a new era of defence cooperation.”

On the diplomatic side, amid the growing rupture between the U.S. and Europe within the G7 and the internal rift within the G20, the coming together of G7 nations (minus the U.S.) with the principal leaders of the Global South, such as India and Brazil, seems promising. It has the potential to bring greater stability in the international environment. The three can advocate for better, enhanced practical cooperation between the G7 and the Global South, a new energy compact in line with the Paris Agreement, and progress toward UN Security Council reform.

On its part, France seeks to be invited to the BRICS summit hosted by India this year, but no progress on this has been made public.

France has initiated another troika with India: an invitation from Macron to Modi to participate in the Africa partnership summit, to be co-hosted by France and Kenya on May 11–12 in Nairobi.[5] This is a coded signal to China that New Delhi and Paris are on the same page in terms of upholding a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.

“The Macron moment,” wrote reputed scholar C. Raja Mohan, “reflects a broad shift in Delhi’s geopolitical imagination – towards a more differentiated understanding of the West.”[6]

In the southern hemisphere, President Lula’s state visit to India from February 18 to 22, was similarly a milestone in India-Brazil relations. This was Lula’s fifth visit to India and his second state visit. It was a return visit to Modi’s state visit to Brazil in July 2025. The multifaceted strategic partnership has grown in strength over two decades, marked by greater constructive collaboration on regional and global issues. This is required: With South Africa’s unexpected expulsion from the G20 during the U.S. presidency this year, greater responsibility in multiple dimensions now rests on the shoulders of Brazil and India, the co-founders of IBSA and the principal leaders of the Global South.

Intensive discussions have deepened the two governments’ shared desire to further strengthen the five key pillars of the India-Brazil relationship: defence, food security, energy and climate, digital transformation, and industrial partnerships in strategic areas. Accompanied by 11 ministers and a huge business delegation, Lula placed a special focus on trade expansion. Broad agreement was reached on doubling bilateral trade to $30 billion by 2030. and on the measures to expand the India-MERCOSUR Preferential Trade Agreement for enhancing “its scope, depth and effectiveness.”

Among the ten concrete outcomes, the key ones are an MoU on cooperation in rare earths and critical minerals, and an action plan for digital partnerships for the future. Brazil and India have a solid base to build on, given their advanced and complementary fintech systems: India with its United Payments Interface, and Brazil with Pix. The commitment to build cyber capabilities and improve the cybersecurity posture is therefore a natural reiteration, and this will be pursued through a bilateral Cyber Dialogue. Efforts are underway to establish a Centre for Digital Public Infrastructure in Brazil.

At the joint media conference, PM Modi observed that he has personally experienced President Lula’s “deep friendship and abiding trust towards India.” President Lula, one of the most experienced and influential global leaders today, stated in a major TV interview that he does not believe in war, emphasizing that he draws inspiration from Mahatma Gandhi’s philosophy of dialogue. He indicated that his goal was diplomacy, trade, and international cooperation rather than confrontation.

What brought France, India, and Brazil together last week was the AI summit. Together with other countries, the Troika signed and supported the Delhi Declaration on AI. Among other bonds, this partnership will help them work together and guide the discourse and decision-making for the long and troubled geopolitical and economic transition underway.

Rajiv Bhatia is the Distinguished Fellow for Foreign Policy Studies and a former ambassador.

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References:

[1] Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. “Horizon 2047: 25th Anniversary of the India–France Strategic Partnership — Towards a Century of India–France Relations.” https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/36806/Horizon_2047_25th_Anniversary_of_the_IndiaFrance_Strategic_Partnership_Towards_A_Century_of_IndiaFrance_Relations

[2] Press Information Bureau, Government of India. “Press Release.” https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetailm.aspx?PRID=2231751&reg=3&lang=2

[3] Press Information Bureau, Government of India. “Press Release.”
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2229412&reg=3&lang=2

[4] Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. “India–France Joint Statement, February 17, 2026.” 
https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/40783/India__France_Joint_Statement_February_17_2026

[5] EHS Africa Logistics. “Kenya to Host Historic Africa–France Summit in 2026.” 
https://ehsafricalogistics.com/kenya-to-host-historic-africa-france-summit-in-2026/

[6] Mohan, C. Raja. “With Emmanuel Macron’s Visit, Delhi and Paris Chart a Third Way Across Traditional Divides.” The Indian Express.
https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/c-raja-mohan-writes-with-emmanuel-macrons-visit-delhi-and-paris-chart-a-third-way-across-traditional-divides-10537675/