Those watching Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit from distant regions may not be aware of the need to place the India-Maldives bilateral on an even keel, but those closely following developments in South Asia are conscious of the high stakes involved—for Maldives, India, and the region. This positive visit and its substantive outcomes demonstrate that the forces favouring regional stability, peace, and cooperation stand strengthened by what was achieved and are reflected in the favourable public reactions to the partnership.
The India-Maldives relationship has been largely stable. From the long presidency of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom (1978–2008) to that of Ibrahim Mohamed Solih (2018–23), the bilateral has grown in strength, with the exception of the tenure of President Abdulla Yameen (2013–18) who did not believe in the criticality of India to his country, and courted China for investment and geopolitical support.
Current Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu was influenced by Yameen’s thinking. He deployed the ‘India Out’ campaign to secure power in 2023 and acted initially to suggest that he too would be able to maintain a strategic pivot to China. His first visits to Turkey and China, rather than to the closest neighbour India, the conclusion of 20 agreements in Beijing, and the raging controversy over his public demand for India to withdraw a small team of defence personnel stationed in his country to man an Indian aircraft and two helicopters for the benefit of the Maldivian people, created a challenging situation. The Indian public responded negatively, urging Indians not to travel to the Maldives. From being the top contributors to Maldivian tourism, visitors from India dropped by 40% in 2023.
Two years later, the tourist issue has blown over, and India’s quiet diplomacy got into action. This has produced results, yielding to the logic of geography and the compelling realities of geopolitics.
In August 2024, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar made a trip to Male, laying the foundations for a reset. By then, geopolitical and economic truths, resulted in the transformation of Muizzu, a former mayor of Male, into a true president of the Maldives. Shortly thereafter in October 2024, Muizzu paid a successful visit to India, being received with warmth in the sub-continent. On October 7, the two governments crafted and announced “A Vision for Comprehensive Economic and Maritime Security Partnership.”
The crucial transaction was this: India spoke about the importance of Maldives in the former’s Neighbourhood First policy and Vision SAGAR (since elevated to MAHASAGAR), assuring the island nation of “its commitment to assist” in its development journey. On its part, the Maldives formally “acknowledged India’s continued role as the ‘First Responder’ of Maldives in times of need.” It also promised to safeguard India’s security interests.
The new leadership’s shift from initial hostility to accommodation and reconciliation with India was due to a combination of factors. It was aware of the positive pro-India attitude of the majority of its domestic constituency. Then, it saw advantage in its own version of multi-alignment rather than choosing China over India. The China connection, it found, raised expectations excessively, only to result in disappointment. Finally, India displayed a blend of patience, pragmatism and generosity, resulting in the reset.
Against this backdrop, PM Modi’s July visit—the third to Maldives but the first in Muizzu’s tenure—served the key purpose of educating and sensitising the people of Maldives that India’s generosity and noble intentions towards them remain unchanged. In a special gesture, he was received at the airport by the president and his senior ministers.
Wide-ranging discussions followed with the government leaders. But Modi also interacted with opposition figures, business leaders, the Indian diaspora, and others. The importance of his presence as the guest of honour at the 60th Independence Day celebrations of Maldives did not go unnoticed. The idea that, regardless of the change in government, India remains a steady and valuable partner of the Maldives seems to have sunk in.
Observers may have noted that the state visit did not result in a joint declaration. The explanation for this was that the agreed long-term vision of October 2024 remains valid and relevant. Hence, it obviated the need for another document within a few months. Some ill-informed critics could argue that no civilian honour was bestowed on the eminent visitor; this is irrelevant as the country’s highest civilian award was already conferred on Modi in 2019.
The positive results of the visit were announced clearly and concisely. The Ministry of External Affairs presented on its website the list of four agreements, or MoUs, three of which related to the economic facets of the relationship. India extended a new Line of Credit (LoC) of $555 million to Maldives and agreed to reduce the annual debt repayment obligations on previous Lines of Credit. The two governments also agreed to the launch of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations. Six projects, including social housing units and high-impact community development initiatives, were inaugurated or handed over to the Maldivian authorities.
An elaborate ceremony of exchange of eight MoUs/agreements took place, which covered not only economic and trade matters but also cooperation in fisheries and aquaculture, meteorology, digital solutions, and the pharmaceutical field. A commemorative stamp was jointly issued to mark the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations between India and the Maldives.
President Muizzu depicted PM Modi’s sojourn as “a defining visit that sets a clear path for the future of Maldives-India relations.”
Overall, said Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, it was a “very, very timely and productive visit”. It provided an opportunity for the two leaders to review and further develop bilateral cooperation. They agreed that the various elements of the joint vision should continue to be implemented through a concerted approach. Most importantly, India has reinforced its consultative approach to bilateral relationships.
Following the visit, a critical analysis highlights three key aspects of the partnership and its broader implications.
First, the reset in bilateral relations, begun last August during EAM’s visit, has now gained special momentum. It owes much to New Delhi’s patience and pragmatism, use of a consultative approach as well as its studied refusal to be provoked by public irritants. Wisely, the larger picture was kept in view.
Second, from a regional perspective, the visit demonstrated India’s continued priority to consolidate its position in South Asia. Progress in relations with the Maldives, as well as with Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Afghanistan, and the continued excellent equation with Bhutan, ensures that India’s leadership position remains largely intact. However, challenges regarding Bangladesh and Pakistan appear to be daunting.
Third, the larger geopolitical context suggests that the competition between India and China in South Asia will persist unabated. In this, mobilising diplomatic support and complementary policies from India’s partners—the U.S., Japan, and Australia—may be desirable, especially in the case of the Maldives and Sri Lanka. There is room for progress in this sphere.
Thanks to PM Modi’s well-prepared and flawlessly executed visit, India-Maldives ties are in a good spot now. The task ahead for South Block is to work determinedly on the Nepal and Bangladesh files.
Rajiv Bhatia is the Distinguished Fellow for Foreign Policy Studies, and a former ambassador.
This article was first published in Firstpost.