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India-China: Back to the drawing board

The sixth round of the Annual Defence Dialogue between India’s Defence Secretary, R. K. Mathur, and China’s Deputy Chief of the People’s Liberation Army, Lt. Gen. Wang Guanzhong, was held in New Delhi on 24 February.

The dialogue is part of a joint effort to keep the Line of Actual Control (LAC) peaceful in 2014.  It is now more than 20 years since the Agreement on Maintenance of Peace and Tranquillity along the LAC was signed in Beijing on 7 September 1993; and 60 years after the Panchsheel Agreement for “peaceful coexistence” between the two countries.

However, China frequently displays its role and strength in maintaining peace along the undefined LAC on the disputed India-China border. Chinese Border Guards with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have regularly transgressed into the Ladakh sector, including during the unprecedented three-week long standoff in Depsang in 2013.

At the same time, almost every initiative to strengthen confidence-building measures (CBMs) astride the LAC has come from China – beginning from 1970 at Chushul; the 1993 Peace and Tranquillity Agreement; the 1996 CBMs; the 2005 add-ons to CBMs; the 2012 Working Mechanism on Border Affairs; and the 2013 Border Defence Cooperation Agreement. A Code of Conduct, whose fine print is not yet known, was also proposed for the armed forces of both countries at a meeting of Special Representatives in New Delhi on 10-11 February 2014.

The focus of every CBM is the management of differences on the border. However, the protocols are non-binding, and their implementation depends on the goodwill of each side so that the status quo can be maintained on the border pending a final settlement.

The MoU for the Annual Defence Dialogue was signed in 2006; the first round of talks was held in 2008. But in 2009, when the military delegation from Jammu and Kashmir’s Northern Command was given a stapled visa, the process of trust-building was stalled. The incident led to a rupture in defence ties, including the cancellation of the Hand-in-Hand series of joint military exercises, which were only resumed last year in Chengdu, China. The next exercise will be held in India later in 2014.

The annual Defence Dialogue seeks to reinforce cross-cutting protocols by expanding the areas of contact. Flag meetings are currently held in Bum La (East) and Spanggur Gap (West). Both sides want additional contacts, including Border Personnel Defence Points, in Lipulekh (Central) and Dikchu (East). Hotlines between the prime ministers were set up in 2010. A similar connection is being sought between the Director Generals, Military Operations (DGMO); but the PLA does not have a DGMO and is creating a counterpart who will be sent to New Delhi later this year.

Between the navies, security cooperation, which is confined to joint search and rescue operations, may also be expanded. The PLA Navy wants to include a maritime dialogue and joint exercises in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), across which ply 60% of China’s energy supplies. Chinese scholars have said that the Indian Ocean is not India’s ocean; but such de-labelling can equally apply to the South China Sea. For any joint exercises in the IOR, India could legitimately demand reciprocity in the South China Sea.

Meanwhile, India plans to significantly enhance its naval capabilities during the 15-year plan period ending in 2027, which will make it a dominant armada in the IOR. India must do this and more, to rapidly close its military and strategic capability gaps, as well as the infrastructure deficit, to be able to effectively deter China. At present, the Chinese are ahead in nuclear and conventional reach.

China’s most recent advocacy aims to reopen the maritime Silk Route, linking the Indian and PacificOceans. In 2009, Admiral Timothy Keating, the Commander in Chief of the U.S. Pacific Command, had first proposed this idea. It is worth exploring, but only after assessing the strategic trade-offs.

The Defence Dialogue also seeks to enlarge exchanges in peace-keeping, counter-terrorism and humanitarian disaster relief. The Chinese have displayed a renewed interest in UN peace-keeping missions, though they are still reluctant to provide combat troops and prefer giving support for logistics operations. India, a seasoned troop contributor, is an inevitable choice for cooperation in peace-keeping.

However, while intensifying the Defence Dialogue, increasing border protocols, and deepening its strategic conversations with Beijing, New Delhi must also work on the issue of settling the border dispute.  It is time for India to suggest a return to the drawing board to restart the abandoned exercise of defining a mutually-acceptable LAC. This will be best way to consolidate peace and tranquillity on the border.

Lt. Gen.(Retd.) Ashok Mehta is a founder-member of the Defence Planning Staff and his last assignment was as General Officer Commanding, IPKF (South) Sri Lanka. He is a former director of Security and Political Risk Analysis and consultant, Indian Defence Review. He is the convenor of a new regional dialogue exploring a regional approach to a post- 2014 Afghanistan.

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